


[Fandom stats] Sherlock fandom trends post-S3

by toastystats (destinationtoast)



Series: Fandom Stats [34]
Category: Sherlock (TV)
Genre: Cross-Posted on Tumblr, Fanwork Research & Reference Guides, Meta, Nonfiction
Language: English
Status: Completed
Published: 2014-02-22
Updated: 2014-02-22
Packaged: 2019-09-19 20:57:06
Rating: General Audiences
Warnings: No Archive Warnings Apply
Chapters: 1
Words: 988
Publisher: archiveofourown.org
Story URL: https://archiveofourown.org/works/17009067
Author URL: https://archiveofourown.org/users/destinationtoast/pseuds/toastystats
Summary: Changes to shipping, fix-it fics, and general activity (as of 2014).





	[Fandom stats] Sherlock fandom trends post-S3

**Author's Note:**

> Originally [posted on Tumblr](http://destinationtoast.tumblr.com/post/77544304450/toastystats-sherlock-trends-post-s3). Sorry for the old, low-resolution images.

We've just started to be able to look at data in the Sherlock fandom post-S3; it will take a while for the dust to settle and some of the trends to become clear.  But in conjunction with the Three Patch Podcast, I looked at what we can tell so far from AO3 about the following questions:

  * **General activity levels:** Has the fandom seen an increase in activity post-S3?
  * **Fix-it fic:** Do people want to fix more things about this series than previous ones?
  * **Mary and Johnlock:** How is the fandom -- especially the Johnlock shippers -- responding to Mary?  Has the amount of Johnlock shipping changed?  
  * **Rare pairs:** How has the shipping landscape shifted for rare pairs?



**AO3 activity levels**

The Sherlock fandom showed a huge jump in activity after S2, becoming one of the most prominent fandoms on AO3.  What's happening post-S3?  I looked at the number of fanworks posted to AO3 during each month since S1 aired:

[](https://photos.google.com/share/AF1QipNfIAP2nBhjNxva3s1oYWyv_nDghuCmNa8INN4wE96IKzjWYKtksd627_5d-6cisA/photo/AF1QipPsVspwDoD0rUoCFnY0_EL9kb0xF2tCGurmXejT?key=UzBPVlZCQ3p1S1VnWHVkM2tDR3lQNGs2VmRBM3BR)

Despite the fact that S3 left some fans dissatisfied or disillusioned, the fandom is most decidedly #Not Dead.  We saw another huge surge of activity in January, which is continuing into February.

For each of the following analyses, I looked at the percentage of this overall monthly activity that used a particular tag.

**Fix-it fic**

Anecdotally, it's seemed that Series 3 was more divisive than the previous two series, and many fans were dissatisfied about various events in S3.  I looked at how this translated to fanfic.

I did a [recent analysis](http://destinationtoast.tumblr.com/post/77359187022/toastystats-canon-divergence-toastystats) of the usage of the "Alternate Universe - Canon Divergence" and "Fix-It" tags on AO3.  I looked at how usage of these has changed over time in the Sherlock fandom.  Do we see a spike in activity post-S3?

[](https://photos.google.com/share/AF1QipNfIAP2nBhjNxva3s1oYWyv_nDghuCmNa8INN4wE96IKzjWYKtksd627_5d-6cisA/photo/AF1QipNRjz2GRN408mNKG3xG-QktuzaYpsNvOUdDPX2S?key=UzBPVlZCQ3p1S1VnWHVkM2tDR3lQNGs2VmRBM3BR)

We do indeed! "Fix-it" appears to have had a spike in activity after each series, but the S3 spike is the biggest.  The Canon Divergence tag has been seeing a general increase in activity over the past year, but it also spiked dramatically in January.

I've been greatly enjoying seeing everyone else's takes on how the series could have or should have gone.  

**Mary and Johnlock**

One potential "elephant in the room" (the theme of the next Three Patch Podcast) for the fandom is the new character of Mary Morstan, and how she changes the dynamic for the two main characters -- especially for shippers.  I took a look at how the amount of Johnlock shipping (relative to overall Sherlock fanworks) has changed over time:

[](https://photos.google.com/share/AF1QipNfIAP2nBhjNxva3s1oYWyv_nDghuCmNa8INN4wE96IKzjWYKtksd627_5d-6cisA/photo/AF1QipO2vXAWj4tG6GVhkyMdkn1L4cTu-Y5ov0sd5LRc?key=UzBPVlZCQ3p1S1VnWHVkM2tDR3lQNGs2VmRBM3BR)

 The ship has been remarkably constant, with about half of AO3 Sherlock fanworks being tagged "Sherlock Holmes/John Watson" since the fandom began.  There is no sign that this is changing post-S3. 

What about John's marriage to Mary, then?  How did Johnlock shippers decide to handle this?  There are fans who ignored Mary's existence, and wrote canon divergent fics, as discussed above.  But for those who incorporated S3 into their fanworks, were they more likely to write about infidelity, or threesomes and/or polyamory?  (These are not the only two options, of course, but these are the two I've looked at so far.)

[](https://photos.google.com/share/AF1QipNfIAP2nBhjNxva3s1oYWyv_nDghuCmNa8INN4wE96IKzjWYKtksd627_5d-6cisA/photo/AF1QipNB1DMPHhWevy2y2R6-V4DQTHUgcUogwU05qfEU?key=UzBPVlZCQ3p1S1VnWHVkM2tDR3lQNGs2VmRBM3BR)

There was a surge in January of "Sherlock Holmes/Mary Morstan/John Watson" fanfic, as well as "Infidelity" fanfic.   In January, Johnlockary was over twice as popular as infidelity (2.2% vs. 0.9% of fandom activity), but in February, Johnlockary has seen a decline, and the two tags are now about equal.

How much of the Johnlockary surge was due to TSoT?  Let's zoom in and look at the week-by-week numbers for 2014:

[](https://photos.google.com/share/AF1QipNfIAP2nBhjNxva3s1oYWyv_nDghuCmNa8INN4wE96IKzjWYKtksd627_5d-6cisA/photo/AF1QipMTCcaU5n2SyQmObnD_DkjG5HGD5BrvpazOyRU9?key=UzBPVlZCQ3p1S1VnWHVkM2tDR3lQNGs2VmRBM3BR)

Indeed, it appears that the week following TSoT was mostly responsible for this surge.  Aside from that week, the numbers here are all very small -- most of the weekly numbers are in the range of just 5-15 fanworks, so don't take the differences too seriously.

**Rare pairs**

What about rare pairs?  Did the Sherlock kisses in TEH or the brief appearance of Mycroft and Lestrade on screen together make a difference?  What about the brief appearance of Lord Moran?

[]()

It's mostly just too early to tell.  Mystrade, Sherlolly, and Sheriarty all saw jumps in activity in 2014 -- there was definitely fan excitement for all these shippers post-S3.  But the graphs are volatile enough enough in general that it's hard to tell at this point whether these are ongoing changes in the shipping landscape.  

Sherlolly has been on the rise for some time.  The 2014 Sherlolly surge has been quite large (up to 6.5% of Sherlock fanworks), but the ship experienced a similarly large surge previously, in late 2013. .

Sheriarty has surged to previously unseen heights (3.1% of Sherlock fanworks).

Mormor has been on the decline for a while, and S3 doesn't seem to have reversed that trend (but it's still a popular rare pair, at 2.7%). 

Mystrade is the most popular rare pair I looked at here (8.2% of fanworks, in 2014).  It's been pretty consistently popular since early in fandom, though initially very volatile (can any Mystrade shippers shed light on what the enormous spike in late 2011 was about?!).  

Let's look at the percent change in activity level from 2013 and 2014 for each of these pairs.  For instance, if the "Sherlock Holmes/Molly Hooper" tag was used for 3% of fanworks in 2013 and 6% of fanworks in 2014 (so far), then that's a 100% increase.  But keep in mind that we don't have much data yet for 2014, so these numbers may change drastically!

[](https://photos.google.com/share/AF1QipNfIAP2nBhjNxva3s1oYWyv_nDghuCmNa8INN4wE96IKzjWYKtksd627_5d-6cisA/photo/AF1QipM7oj9mzMHDatMdo-D9pIiQqFyl5AeQps8K5x32?key=UzBPVlZCQ3p1S1VnWHVkM2tDR3lQNGs2VmRBM3BR)

**Edit:** thanks to a tip from lovely reader [ravenbasslady](http://ravenbasslady.tumblr.com/) , I updated these analyses to include Sherstrade, which has also seen a recent surge:

[](https://photos.google.com/share/AF1QipNfIAP2nBhjNxva3s1oYWyv_nDghuCmNa8INN4wE96IKzjWYKtksd627_5d-6cisA/photo/AF1QipNm7INbAU4dy7iSj7d7EdI-9rkyIAkd-R57y9o7?key=UzBPVlZCQ3p1S1VnWHVkM2tDR3lQNGs2VmRBM3BR)

[](https://photos.google.com/share/AF1QipNfIAP2nBhjNxva3s1oYWyv_nDghuCmNa8INN4wE96IKzjWYKtksd627_5d-6cisA/photo/AF1QipOaFxsl1gz03q6OD-dvTlxyZUjx-0E1G8b1HO7V?key=UzBPVlZCQ3p1S1VnWHVkM2tDR3lQNGs2VmRBM3BR)

**Takeaways**

The Sherlock fandom, and many of the ships, are quite lively in the wake of S3!  There is a lot of creativity out there happening on a number of topics.  Go forth and enjoy, and contribute!  Also feel free to give me feedback, or suggest other topics related to fandom activity on AO3 or Tumblr. 

**Author's Note:**

> Comments welcome, but I’m in the middle of a massive fandom stats backup due to Tumblr purge, so I may be slow to respond.


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